What to know about Kazuma Okamoto and his chances to succeed as an MLB hitter
- - What to know about Kazuma Okamoto and his chances to succeed as an MLB hitter
Jordan ShustermanJanuary 3, 2026 at 6:01 AM
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The third and final star to make the jump from Japan’s NPB to MLB this offseason, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, must agree to a deal with a major-league club before his posting window closes at 5 p.m. ET Sunday. Following the surprising outcomes of slugger Munetaka Murakami signing with the White Sox and right-handed pitcher Tatsuya Imai joining the Houston Astros, Okamoto’s pending decision represents the highly anticipated finale in a trilogy of signings that have dominated the hot stove discourse in recent weeks.
Fair or not — the two are close friends, so pitting them as rivals is somewhat misleading — it has been difficult to evaluate Okamoto’s prospects for MLB success without comparing him to Murakami, considering the timing of their moves to MLB and their contrasting styles as hitters. As it turned out, Murakami’s swing-and-miss tendencies and unimpressive outlook as a defender limited his market more than we expected, resulting in a two-year pact with the rebuilding White Sox, rather than a long-term megadeal commensurate with a surefire superstar. But Okamoto, with well-above-average bat-to-ball skills and a notably better chance of sticking at third base, offers a much more plug-and-play profile for teams to invest in.
That’s not to say there won’t be adjustments for Okamoto to make. And because he’s closer to the age of a typical free agent — he turns 30 on June 30 — it’s difficult to envision him landing a multiyear deal approaching nine figures like a domestic free agent with his résumé might. Still, Okamoto’s track record of consistent excellence and advanced offensive aptitude combine to offer far more optimism for immediate contributions at the big-league level than Murakami inspired.
Okamoto might not possess the spectacular ceiling that Murakami demonstrated earlier in his career, when his jaw-dropping power production fueled consecutive Central League MVP Awards and the single-season record for home runs by a Japanese-born player, with 56 in 2022. But Okamoto is one of the most accomplished NPB hitters of his generation, and he’s no slouch in the slugging department, either: His 152 home runs rank second only to Murakami (181) over the past five NPB seasons. Only three other hitters league-wide surpassed 100 home runs during that span, which serves as a reminder of both NPB’s “dead ball” offensive environment and Okamoto’s (and Murakami’s) ability to overcome such circumstances and produce outlier slugging totals regardless.
While Murakami boasts eye-popping exit velocities, Okamoto’s power output is the product of superior contact skills and an exceptional ability to elevate the ball with frequency. His 11.3% strikeout rate and 90% in-zone contact rate in 2025 were both career-best marks, and he has consistently posted ground-ball rates in the low-30s, which would rank among the lowest marks in MLB if that trend continues.
Adding to Okamoto’s star power is the fact that he played for the Yomiuri Giants, the enormously popular, Tokyo-based franchise that boasts the most Japan Series titles in NPB history. Starring for what is essentially NPB’s Yankees carries elevated status, and while — as with the Yankees — it has been a minute since Yomiuri’s most recent championship (2012), Okamoto’s ascent occurring for one of the league’s most prominent franchises has contributed to his star power significantly.
Kazuma Okamoto represents the finale in the trilogy of NPB stars to make the jump to MLB this winter. (Hayden Hodge/Yahoo Sports)
Further enhancing Okamoto’s reputation in Japan was his performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, in which he hit .333/.556/.722 with seven runs batted in across seven games, including home runs against Italy in the quarterfinals and Team USA in the championship game. And after Okamoto batted sixth and played first base in deference to Murakami three years ago, Samurai Japan manager Hirokazu Ibata has already indicated that Okamoto will man the hot corner and bat cleanup in the upcoming tournament.
That expected flip across the diamond is another element of Okamoto’s profile that distinguishes him from Murakami, who is expected to play first for Chicago (and Samurai Japan) after spending the vast majority of his NPB career at third. Okamoto is no Nolan Arenado, and he has also spent time at first as a pro — notably, a collision with a baserunner while he was playing first resulted in a left elbow injury that cost him a chunk of the 2025 season — but most evaluators view him as viable at third base in the majors, at least for now. And for potential suitors with a crowded infield picture, Okamoto might be helped further by some experience in the outfield, having logged 68 starts in left for Yomiuri as well.
All together, Okamoto offers a collection of promising indicators that his game will translate to the big-league level. But no matter how glowing the scouting reports or how gaudy the stats, the reality is that projecting hitters’ ability to succeed when coming to MLB from NPB is a far more daunting task than it is for pitchers. That’s partially the product of how much easier it is to evaluate pitchers’ raw skills irrespective of competition, thanks to new-age pitch data and metrics, but there has also been a far smaller sample of position players to attempt the move, providing fewer precedents to turn to as parallels.
Imai just became the 53rd pitcher to sign with an MLB club from NPB since Hideo Nomo’s historic signing with the Dodgers in 1995. Okamoto will be just the 20th hitter to do so since Ichiro Suzuki was the first in 2001 (not counting Shohei Ohtani, who occupies a category of his own, of course). The success of that relatively small group of hitters has ranged wildly, from Cooperstown-bound icons such as Ichiro to reliable role players to several forgettable, failed cameos.
Where Okamoto ultimately falls on that spectrum remains to be seen, but his move to the majors looms as another fascinating and important storyline and data point in this burgeoning era of Japanese stars coming stateside.
Source: “AOL Sports”
