- - Jaguars vs. Bills NFL playoffs wild-card betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets for Jaguars-Bills

Ben FawkesMatt Jacob and Matt Russell January 10, 2026 at 1:10 AM

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The AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, the first time that the Bills will be headed on the road in the playoffs since 2020.

Josh Allen has a road to a Super Bowl appearance in the AFC that doesn't include Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes for the first time in his career. Is this finally the season that the Bills break through?

Ben Fawkes gathers quotes from oddsmakers for all the games and our team of NFL handicappers provides their favorite wagers on the game.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

No. 6 Buffalo Bills (-1, 51.5) at No. 3 Jacksonville JaguarsWhat oddsmakers are saying

"Not much movement on the spread on this one. Bills opened -1.5, still sitting -1. Advance wagering has been relatively split. We’ve seen most of the money come in on the over, as we opened 51.5, and it's now 52.5. Jaguars first half taking the half-point, we’ve seen some respected money come in there.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata

"Jaguars are one of the most surprising teams this year. We’re going to see one-way traffic on this one on the Bills. Expectations are high for Buffalo. This is the highest total on the board. Pretty much two-way action on the total, public on the over and sharps on under. No weather implications in this one. I don’t see the Bills support changing." — Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets

Jacob: The Bills finished the regular season 12-5 on the field, 8-9 at the betting window and had the NFL’s 28th-ranked rushing defense.

The Jaguars finished 13-4 straight-up, 12-5 against the spread (tied for best in the league) and fielded the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense.

What’s more, the Jaguars come into wild-card weekend riding an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak. They went 7-1 SU and ATS in Jacksonville (while Buffalo went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road). And quarterback Trevor Lawrence put up better raw passing numbers (4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns) than reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen (3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns).

Given all these facts, one can’t help but ask: Why is Jacksonville a home underdog against the Bills on Saturday? Answer: perception.

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Buffalo has been an NFL juggernaut throughout this decade, posting 11-plus victories in five straight seasons, winning seven playoff games and reaching the AFC championship game twice.

The Jags, on the other hand, have been a perennial NFL punching bag. Prior to this year, they had recorded double-digit losses in 11 of the previous 14 seasons and registered just three playoff victories since 2008.

Ah, but perception and reality are not synonymous. The fact is the Jaguars — who averaged 33 points over their last 11 games and have held six straight opponents under 21 points — are the better, more complete team. They’re also healthier (especially at quarterback, as Allen has been banged up all season).

Toss in the fact that favorites of three points or less are 6-14 SU since the NFL playoffs expanded in 2020 — including 2-9 the last two years — and I’m all over the home side in this one.

Bet: Jaguars money line (+100)

Matt Russell: Jacob beat me to the Jaguars’ money line, and I’m tempted to take the BetMGM slider over as far as it can go, to an alternative line of Jaguars -9.5 (+360). So, officially speaking, let’s use a player prop symbolic of the Bills’ organizational failures.

That it got to the point that Brandin Cooks — a 32-year-old on his seventh team — had to be brought in for Josh Allen to rely on, and Cooks is being relied on, is an indictment on many levels. Before sitting out Week 18, Cooks played a season-high 51% of the offensive snaps, catching four passes on six targets for 101 yards in a trailing game-state against the Eagles. Two weeks after getting three targets in a similar scenario in New England.

If the Jags, a team capable and willing of running up the score, get enough of a lead where Allen has to throw, Cooks will be one of his primary targets in an effort to save the day yet again.

Bet: Brandin Cooks over 19.5 receiving yards

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”